TAMIU'S Sanchez School of Business, Texas Center Releases Second Volume in North American Trade-Linked Employment Analysis Series
The Texas A&M International University (TAMIU) A. R. Sanchez, Jr. School of Business Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development (TCBEED) has released the second volume in its three-part series analyzing North American trade integration and workforce vulnerability.
"North American Trade Integration at Risk: México's Sectoral Workforce Exposure to U.S. Tariffs," authored by Texas Center director Dr. Daniel Covarrubias and program manager Heleodoro Lozano, employs trade-linked employment exposure modeling to analyze how deeply México's regional workforces are integrated with North American commerce.
Dr. Covarrubias said the analysis shows this vulnerability spans across both countries.
"This second volume offers a critical component of our trilateral analysis, revealing the economic interdependence between México and its North American partners," explained Dr. Covarrubias, "By applying trade-linked employment methodologies across countries, we're creating a comprehensive picture of regional economic vulnerability to trade disruption from proposed U.S. tariffs."
Dr. Luis Perez-Batres, dean of the Sanchez School of Business, reflected on the findings' broader impact.
"At the Sanchez School of Business, we are committed to research that bridges academia and industry for real-world impact. By quantifying the complex interdependencies that shape North America’s economic future, we are equipping business and policy leaders with actionable intelligence while contributing meaningfully to advance international business knowledge. This work can position the Sanchez School and the Texas Center as leading references for cross-border trade and economic integration,” Perez explained.
The analysis of Mexico's 15 most trade-dependent states reveals that over 4.1 million jobs across these regions face potential exposure to trade disruption. Manufacturing shows the highest vulnerability, with approximately 2.6 million jobs at risk, while agriculture and mining sectors contribute an additional 1.5 million potentially exposed jobs.
Covarrubias said the geographic distribution of this exposure is particularly noteworthy.
“Jalisco registers the highest absolute exposure with 442,271 jobs at risk, driven by advanced manufacturing and agricultural exports. Meanwhile, the automotive corridor stretching through Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Nuevo León shows substantial vulnerability with over one million combined jobs connected to North American trade," he revealed.
This volume follows the Texas Center's earlier U.S. analysis, which found 4.3 million jobs across 15 key states significantly connected to North American trade, with Texas leading at 805,000 jobs and the Great Lakes manufacturing belt also showing deep integration.
The integration of economies connects and guides these relationships across time, Covarrubias noted.
"When examined alongside our U.S. findings, this research underscores how deeply integrated these economies have become," Covarrubias said, "From automotive manufacturing to agricultural exports, we're documenting economic relationships that have evolved over three decades of regional integration."
The final volume in the three-part series will examine Canada's employment exposure, completing the trilateral view of North America's economic interdependence and shared vulnerability.
To access this report and other recent publications from the Texas Center, please visit http://texascenter.tamiu.edu/publications-news.shtml.
For more about the TCBEED and its research initiatives, please contact Dr. Covarrubias at dcova@tamiu.edu or call 956.326.2520.
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