TAMIU Texas Center Research Reveals 9.9 Million Jobs Across North America Face Exposure to Trade Disruptions

Texas A&M International University's (TAMIU) A.R. Sanchez, Jr.  School of Business, Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development (TCBEED), has released the final report in its three-country analysis examining employment vulnerability across the USMCA region. The comprehensive series reveals that 9.9 million jobs across the United States, México, and Canada face potential exposure to ongoing trade disruptions, threatening three decades of North American economic integration that generates $1.8 trillion in annual intra-regional trade.

The newly released Canada analysis completes the three-part study, "North American Trade Integration at Risk: Employment Impacts from Tariff Disruptions in USMCA Trading Bloc," which examines employment vulnerability across the United States (4.3 million jobs), México (4.1 million jobs), and Canada (1.5 million jobs) resulting from current U.S. tariffs of 25% on most goods and 10% on Canadian energy resources.

"The numbers tell a stark story about how deeply integrated our continental economy has become," explained Dr. Daniel Covarrubias, director of the TCBEED, "This isn't just about tariffs, it's about understanding the interconnected supply chains, specialized workforce development, and complementary production processes that three decades of NAFTA and USMCA have created."

Geographic Concentration & Manufacturing Vulnerability

The analysis reveals significant geographic concentration of exposure, with just six states and provinces accounting for more than half of all employment at risk. In the United States, Texas has the highest absolute exposure, with 805,000 jobs, followed by Michigan, 672,000 jobs, and California, 406,000 jobs. The Great Lakes manufacturing belt shows trade dependency rates exceeding 70% in key states.

In México, Jalisco leads with 442,000 jobs at risk, followed closely by Estado de México, 434,000 jobs, and Baja California, 413,000 jobs. The automotive corridor spanning Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Nuevo Leóndemonstrates critical supply chain integration, with manufacturing accounting for 89% of North American exports.

Canada's newly released analysis shows 1.5 million jobs at risk, with 78% concentrated in three provinces: Ontario, 589,000 jobs; Quebec, 326,000 jobs, and Alberta, 269,000 jobs. Resource-dependent provinces show particularly high trade dependencies, with Alberta at 89.5% and Manitoba at 80.5%. 

Manufacturing Bears the Brunt

Across all three countries, the manufacturing sector accounts for 75% of total employment exposure, with 7.4 million jobs at risk. The analysis reveals how North American products routinely cross borders multiple times during production, creating complex interdependencies that amplify the impact of disruptions.

"What makes this situation particularly challenging is the nature of North American supply chains," Dr. Covarrubias noted, "A single automotive part might cross the border eight times before final assembly. The exposure we've identified reflects real workers in real communities who depend on economic networks built over three decades of integration."

Scenario-Based Projections

The research models three disruption scenarios reflecting varying degrees of trade reduction:

• Scenario A (Mild Impact - 10% reduction): 990,000 jobs affected across North America
• Scenario B (Moderate Impact - 25% reduction): 5 million jobs affected
• Scenario C (Severe Impact - 40% reduction): 0 million jobs affected

"These scenarios help policymakers understand the range of potential outcomes as businesses adapt to new trade conditions," explained Heleodoro Lozano, program manager at the Texas Center, "The actual impact will depend on factors including the duration of tariffs, business adaptation strategies, and alternative market availability."

Methodology and Data Sources

The analysis employs trade-linked employment exposure modeling, a methodology used by the World Bank, National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Institute for Research on Public Policy  to assess exposure to trade shocks. The research draws on official government data from the U.S. Census Bureau, México’s INEGI, and Statistics Canada to examine trade flows and employment across the manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, and mining sectors.

Policy Implications

Dr. Covarrubias emphasized that the findings underscore the importance of preserving and strengthening North American economic partnerships.

"The economic ties binding our three nations together have grown too complex and vital to be easily undone without substantial consequences for workers, businesses, and communities across the continent, " he explained.

The research identifies several critical policy considerations, including support for workforce transition programs in affected regions, investment in export market diversification where possible, and enhanced trade infrastructure to reduce transaction costs. The analysis also highlights the need for targeted assistance to highly exposed sectors and regions, as well as continued diplomatic engagement to preserve trade relationships.

"As we approach the 2026 USMCA review, this research provides data-driven insights into what's actually at stake -- the livelihoods of nearly 10 million workers whose jobs depend on the integrated continental economy we've built together," Covarrubias concluded.

How to Access Research

All three country reports (United States, México, and Canada) are available for download at https://texascenter.tamiu.edu/research-nai.shtml. Each report includes state- or provincial-level employment exposure data, sectoral breakdowns, scenario-based impact projections, trade dependency analysis, and policy recommendations.

For more information about the Texas Center's research initiatives, visit https://texascenter.tamiu.edu, email dcova@tamiu.edu, or call 956.326.2520.